Rotterdam, September 20, 2023 – During Prince's Day 2023, the government announced plans to address global issues. Despite political turbulence and complex risks, such as the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, the outgoing cabinet presents its plans for 2024. According to the Global Business Risk Report (GBRR) by business data specialist Altares Dun & Bradstreet companies with international operations face an above-average risk in the third quarter. Altares Dun & Bradstreet analyzed how the Dutch government is responding to these uncertainties.
The GBRR ranks the biggest threats to businesses. Each risk scenario is assigned a score based on its potential impact on businesses. The scores of the top 10 risks are used to calculate an overall Global Business Impact (GBI) score.
In the third quarter of 2023, the GBI has reached a score of 306, which is the lowest score of the year but still significantly lower than the peak of 332 recorded in 2020 due to the effects of the pandemic. Despite the GBI score now being at its lowest level in over a year, it remains above the long-term average of 274. This development underscores the ongoing challenges that businesses face in international trade. During the recent Throne Speech, King Willem-Alexander highlighted the measures that the Dutch government is taking to address these challenges.
- Support for Ukraine
The war between Russia and Ukraine is one of the most significant risks of the third quarter of 2023, with a GBI score of 48. The Netherlands continues to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression and takes responsibility for preparing the prosecution of war crimes. Additionally, the Netherlands advocates for enhanced international cooperation, both within the EU and with like-minded countries such as the United States.
- Purchasing power measures
The current high interest rates and divergent policies of central banks forecast a potential economic slowdown and the risk of stagflation. Prince's Day 2023 focuses on poverty alleviation with an allocation of 2 billion euros, which is expected to result in a 1.8 percent increase in purchasing power in 2024 benefiting all income groups.
- Climate Uncertainty and Businesses
The uncertainty in the energy sector in Europe has led to a global divide: countries that are accelerating their energy transition and countries that feel compelled to secure their current energy supply. At the same time, we see that diverse policy measures also pose challenges for businesses. Despite changing circumstances, the GBI score for climate risks remains stable at 27. Netherlands is among the countries actively transitioning to greener energy sources with policies such as subsidies for sustainable initiatives and improvements to the electricity grid.
- Political Developments in Europe
'Political Developments in the EU' ranks seventh in the top 10 risks to watch, with a GBI score of 21. At the beginning of July, we witnessed unrest in France, the fall of the Dutch government, and early elections in Spain. These events have set the stage for the European Parliament elections next year. Across Europe, we see that issues related to migration and asylum are causing deep political divisions.
- Cyber Risks
On Prince's Day 2023, the Netherlands reflects on the increasing cyber threats and the growing need for digital skills. With a GBI score of 22, cyber risk ranks sixth. The government acknowledges that digitalization and artificial intelligence bring new opportunities and risks in the fields of work, healthcare, education, and the economy. Measures are being taken to enhance the digital skills of the population and ensure secure digital participation.
David Verheecke, Managing Director at Altares Dun & Bradstreet, stated, "In a time of increasing global uncertainty, it is crucial to understand that business decision-making is influenced by complex factors. These complex factors are not limited to corporate boardrooms but extend beyond. This is also confirmed by the policy priorities highlighted in the Throne Speech. Business leaders and policymakers are increasingly confronted with issues such as geopolitical shifts, environmental impact, technological disruption, and economic volatility."
